286 – Allow me a wry smile

Posted on March 31, 2014 by

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It is not often one gets an unassailable chance to gloat and bask in the warmth of self-congratulation – to have an « I told you so » moment. I have just been handed one.

But first reality check: this is my final destination: http://bit.ly/1moTInz
Meanwhile, this is how it feels

Image

The World Bank has issued its 2015 Report: http://bit.ly/1moIIGF This quote is the two first paragraphs of the introduction:
“Economists have long held that the best way to predict human behavior is to assume that people are rational, selfish, and more or less identical. New research shows that this is not necessarily the case.

The World Development Report 2015 is based on three main ideas:

Bounds on rationality, which limit individuals’ ability to process information and lead them to rely on rules of thumb;
Social interdependence, which leads people to care about other people as well as the social norms of their communities; and culture, which provides
Mental models that influence what individuals pay attention to, perceive, and understand (or misunderstand).”
I’m pleased to note that the IBRD is going in the lead with these enthymemes, and in particular, I’m pleased to see recognition for mental states, which I used to call mentalities.

The few who have occasionally followed my nano-blog will recognize, in short and cogent form, what I’ve been arguing for quite a while now. But I freely admit having gleaned this from a network of others. Nothing I’ve said is truly new.

These are enthymemes – starting points, which we now need to refine in Bayesian fashion. No time, therefore, for resting on laurels.
As the White Rabbit was saying: “So little time, so much to do” – just to get to “good enough.”

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